[Basukesu]

I guess being in Japan has me trapped in a very narrow bubble of thought, but I did not realize Nintendo was losing market share this fast. I thought its systems had flattened out on the sales front but was still a solid performer. I guess the market is saturated with the brand at this point.

Read this in Yahoo Finance this morning:

source:

http://finance.yahoo...mluYWwEc2xrAzI-

pertinent excerpt:

6. Nintendo's once nearly insurmountable lead in the video console sector has been lost, and its sales have fallen further and further behind rivals Microsoft (NASDAQ: MSFT - News) and Sony (NYSE: SNE - News). The rise of the Google (NASDAQ: GOOG - News) Android operating system has also encouraged video game publishers to make more products that run on that platform. The 2010 market share of Nintendo DS fell from 70% in 2009 to 57%. Nintendo's growth has also been damaged by the rise of the iPad and iPhone. The future is even grimmer. "iSuppli predicts Nintendo will sell 70 million 3DS gaming systems by 2015, a figure that is 21 million less than the 91 million in sales racked up by the original DS at the same point in its sales cycle," according to the Unofficial Apple Weblog. Nintendo announced an unexpected quarterly loss on July 28, and its shares plunged 20%. The stock is down from a 52-week high of 26,780 yen to 11,850 yen. In late 2007, shares reached 80,000 yen.


I guess the leap to the 3DS on a DS soaked user base the economy and apparently slumping sales along with increased competition are showing their toll. The consensus in Japan has also been that Sony virtually hijacked TGS with the PSV and nothing from nintendo, save the latest MH offerings later in December, seemed enticing. The future seems ominous. But also in Japan it is riding high on the WiiU, even though it is vapor-hardware at this point until release is confirmed.

My question is, how long has this been going on?!??!? In Japan sales seem brisk, but I guess that is because Microsoft is not even a contender around here. What has your impression of Nintendo been recently?

[Jask]

It seems to be fairly recent. The DS and Wii sold quite well, thanks to the casual market.

I don't think the DSi XL sold that well though. The 3DS launch was a joke. Target sent out an inside letter saying they were expecting huge sales, and that we would only get enough systems to fill the pre-orders. My store sold three that day. In the four months it's been out (is that right?) we have never once been out of stock. We sell as many DSLites as we do 3DS. People just didn't want to drop 250 USD on a somewhat upgraded DSi. The graphics didn't seem hugely improved and the library is growing at a snail's pace. Many of the big games for it are just N64 games re-released.The warning label about the 3D doesn't help. A lot of the DS's I sell are for kids that are under ten, often under seven. Parents freak out about the warning label. Personally, I cannot see 3D as anything more than a gimmick. It doesn't really change gameplay any. We don't see console or PC games touting it. The complaints about headaches from the 3D didn't help sales any either.

While the Wii sold amazingly well, I get the feeling the WiiU will be a disaster. Ever since it was unveiled I've been uneasy about the controller. It's huge, makes the old Xbox controller look tiny. It's a god damned iPad with buttons. Aside from being unwieldy, it looks like it will cost a lot to replace. As I've said before, I'm calling $100 per controller. I read an article recently saying that developers were having trouble making games for it, because Nintendo was sending them horribly low quality testing models, so it looks like third party games may take a while to pick up. This is pretty bad, considering the console is supposed to launch in around half a year. A lack of games is one of the things hurting the 3DS, so the WiiU may suffer similar fate.

It's sad and strange to say, but we may be watching the decline of Nintendo. It would blow my mind to watch Nintendo go the way of Sega, but I'm sure that's still far from happening.

[Basukesu]

Wow, really? Yeah I guess being in Japan I never saw it creep up.

Though I would not write Nintendo off just yet. They survived the N64 days and you have to admit those days they got beat loooong before they even hit the gate with anything good. If a lot of their profit went to develop this WiiU though then I dunno. In Japan there is quite optimism about it, assuming the box itself remains as small as the current Wii and the controller is revamped to something that makes sense. But yeah it maybe that like the N64 Nintendo hunkers down at home for a while, then repositions. It took two console cycles for them to dig themselves out the last time (N64+GC).

Around here the 3DS is 150 or so in adjusted dollars, and yeah it is never out of stock I have only seen 1 in my entire time since debut (stands at 7months or so here) actually being used.

There is the usual clamor about MH on the 3DS but there is some dissent too, it seems people dont want the 3DS in general and would prefer these run on a non 3DS, DS. Oo It is not many voicing that but there are a few. But listening to your experience it seems Nintendo has a lot to overcome this time around.

[Jask]

You talk about the N64 as a dark time for Nintendo. I remember it quite differently. Granted, I was younger then, and was a late adopter, as usual, but there were a lot of great games for it. It also got a lot of cross platform action. I was under the impression that the N64 went more for polygons while the PSX went more for pre-renders and sprites. There were a lot of great games on both. Sure, if you were into RPGs then you went for the PSX, no question, but there were a lot of great platformers, action games, and shooters on the N64. The four controller ports helped a lot. It felt to me like the two consoles were pretty even. Then there was the Dreamcast, but lets not go into that...

The 3DS did drop to 170 USD over here too, just around a month ago. Forgot to mention that. Not sure if that was because of the NGP or failing sales. Probably a mix of the two.

Given how successful they were I could see the DS and Wii going similar to the PS2, continuing to hang on to the last of their life well into the life of their successors. Lots of people are buying Wiis at my store, even with the WiiU looming (granted, many of them are casuals that have no idea about the WiiU). The 135 USD price tag helps a lot with that.

[Basukesu]

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/N64

Last sentence under History. It was really a sad time for Nintendo. I had been a SNES user and was not compelled one bit by the N64. The Saturn and the PSONe ended up in my collection.

And

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gamecube

Read market share and reception and sales.

Truly bad for the big N. THey came back with the Wii and the DS, and actually the portables always saved their butt, but now who knows. The 3DS is almost on par with the PSPGo in terms of sales, and appeal.

I wish em well.

[uragaan]

Having done a bit of reading on Nintendo's history (there are a few great books you can find in the business section of major bookstores), Nintendo was doing VERY poorly in the N64 AND Gamecube era. They survived that period almost purely on gameboy sales. The problem at that time was that they were too focused (and they had admitted this too) on hardware. There was a serious lack of software for N64 and right now we are sort of seeing the same problem. The reason 3DS is lackluster in performance is not because of the system, but because of the lack of games.

What they need to come back to the forefront of the gaming industry are some NEW games (New IP). Not just another super mario, or mario kart (although they are fun...). Easier said than done i suppose but hopefully they are seeing the poor response and are responding in the right way.

I currently do not own a 3DS but will be buying one with the release of MH. That being said, I have tremendous respect for Nintendo's people and i am willing to bet that they will make ANOTHER comeback.

[Jask]

Basukesu, on 20 September 2011 - 08:29 AM, said:

The 3DS is almost on par with the PSPGo in terms of sales, and appeal.

I wouldn't go that far. Retailers weren't refusing to stock the 3DS at launch. =P

Wow, I didn't realize the N64 did so badly. They even had to sell their souls to the demon of casuals to regain their footing. We'll see how things go...

[uragaan]

Another thing that pisses me off is the general conception that Nintendo caters to the "casual". Nintendo's goal with the DS was to expand the gaming population, and it succeeded. Their goals with Wii was in Iwata's words "to make a system that is mom friendly". So to insult Nintendo by saying they cater to the casual is akin to making fun of a dog for licking himself.

Their target market with DS and Wii was the NON-gamers. The gaming population was declining back in early 2000, and Nintendo had singe-handily brought back gaming as a respectable medium of entertainment.

[Nymeria]

meh... I think the biggest problem with the 3DS at the moment is the lack of signature titles released for it. I bet things will go a bit better when games like Mario Kart 3DS hit the shelves (not until sometime around the end of this year).

[Basukesu]

uragaan, on 21 September 2011 - 01:34 AM, said:

Having done a bit of reading on Nintendo's history (there are a few great books you can find in the business section of major bookstores), Nintendo was doing VERY poorly in the N64 AND Gamecube era. They survived that period almost purely on gameboy sales. The problem at that time was that they were too focused (and they had admitted this too) on hardware. There was a serious lack of software for N64 and right now we are sort of seeing the same problem. The reason 3DS is lackluster in performance is not because of the system, but because of the lack of games.

What they need to come back to the forefront of the gaming industry are some NEW games (New IP). Not just another super mario, or mario kart (although they are fun...). Easier said than done i suppose but hopefully they are seeing the poor response and are responding in the right way.

I currently do not own a 3DS but will be buying one with the release of MH. That being said, I have tremendous respect for Nintendo's people and i am willing to bet that they will make ANOTHER comeback.

Yah, like I said they survived 2 consecutive downward slumps, Sega by comparison only lasted through one (saturn) and never rebounded (dreamcast). So Nintendo has proven it can survive these things. But that all depended greatly on their portable line of titles. I hope they get their act together with the 3DS and the rest of their portable sales while they shape up for the WiiU.

Still amazing it got to this point again though. I mean you'd figure after N64 and GC they would have thought not to repeat that mistake with the 3DS (lack of titles) and hopefully are learning now, not to do that with the WiiU.

Though I will say, I have no interest in the 3DS in general something about it just doesn't click for me. And once the PSV is out I wonder about that whole thing. It hits Japan on 12/17 of this year. Judging by the reactions at TGS likely it has overshadowed 3DS, but then again MH3G hits the 3DS in Japan also in December...so a pre-emptive strike by Nintendo? Will it be enough to start to the struggle? Time will tell.

This post has been edited by Basukesu: 21 September 2011 - 12:23 AM

[VioletKIRA]

Interesting find Basukesu. Falling below Microsoft is pretty surprising.

Just imagine what would happen if an emulator came out for 3DS that could play MH. All the other (successful) Nintendo consoles have been emulated to some degree of success so far.

This post has been edited by VioletKIRA: 21 September 2011 - 06:36 PM

[Mr. Popo]

Basukesu, on 19 September 2011 - 05:26 PM, said:

according to the Unofficial Apple Weblog.

Seems questionable...

[Basukesu]

Mr. Popo, on 22 September 2011 - 12:38 AM, said:

Seems questionable...

Well I didn't say it they did.

[Ulic Qeldroma]

bah nintendo isnt going anywhere.... since the price drop of 3ds its been the number 1 seller in japan according to media create console sales...and the big wii u controller isnt the main controller for the system